SPACE & COUNTERSPACE
WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH SPACE FORCE? (click here)
How do we best leverage the expansion of the global space industry? As the Economist says, "The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth — an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens — both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war."
First and foremost, the world must set forth a more modern rule of law that will govern space. The only current governing law, the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 is far too broad to deal with the challenges we face today - things like the commercialization of space, space tourism, vulnerable satellites, increasing traffic, space mining, liability laws, and even more mundane issues like how to handle space debris.
These issues plus a significantly shifting geopolitical landscape demand that we get ahead of this. The Worldwide Threat Assessment assesses "that commercial space services will continue to expand; countries – including U.S. adversaries and strategic competitors – will become more reliant on space services for civil and military needs, and China and Russia will field new counterspace weapons intended to target U.S. and allied space capabilities." Further, "the expansion of the global space industry will further extend space-enabled capabilities and space situational awareness to government, non-state, and commercial actors in the next several years. All actors will increasingly have access to space-derived information services, such as imagery; weather; communications; and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT)."
Other highlights from the report:
Evidence:
Oriana Pawlyk. "It's Official: Trump Announces Space Force as 6th Military Branch." Military.com. 18 June 2018
Michael Rainey. "Why Trump’s Space Force May Have Trouble Getting Off the Ground." The Fiscal Times. 22 June 2018
"A New Age of Space Exploration is Beginning." Economist. 18 July 2019
United States. "Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community." Director of National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats. 29 Jan 2019
We expect foreign governments will continue efforts to expand their use of space-based reconnaissance, communications, and navigation systems – including by increasing the number of satellites, quality of capabilities, and applications for use. China and Russia are seeking to expand the full spectrum of their space capabilities, as exemplified by China’s launch of its highest-resolution imagery satellite, Gaofen-11, in July 2018.
Adversary Use of Space
Space Warfare and Counterspace Weapons
We assess that China and Russia are training and equipping their military space forces and fielding new anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons to hold U.S. and allied space services at risk, even as they push for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space.
Both countries recognize the world’s growing reliance on space and view the capability to attack space services as a part of their broader efforts to deter an adversary from or defeat one in combat.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has an operational ground-based ASAT missile intended to target low-Earth-orbit satellites, and China probably intends to pursue additional ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to geosynchronous Earth orbit.
Russia is developing a similar ground-launched ASAT missile system for targeting low-Earth orbit that is likely to be operational within the next several years. It has fielded a ground-based laser weapon, probably intended to blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors, such as those used for remote sensing.
China’s and Russia’s proposals for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space do not cover multiple issues connected to the ASAT weapons they are developing and deploying, which has allowed them to pursue space warfare capabilities while maintaining the position that space must remain weapons free.