Space
continued
Space Force is a great step into the future but, because there are so many issues to address – and so many players involved around the world – a top priority must be that the United States take a leadership role in establishing a modern set of global laws to govern space.
The current governing law, the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, is far too broad and outdated to deal with the challenges we face today – issues like the commercialization of space, space tourism, vulnerable satellites, increasing traffic, space mining, space junk, and liability laws. As The Economist warns:
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development.
It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth – an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled, the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens – both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
“Space junk” is a great example. Countries around the world have put thousands and thousands of objects into the Earth’s orbit since the Soviet Union put the first satellite in space in 1957 (note: although many countries have put things into space, the United States, Russia and China are collectively responsible for 92 percent of all the space junk).
As a result, outdated satellites, random rocket parts, and space debris is literally starting to fall from the sky. Currently, Space Force monitors about 29,000 pieces of orbital debris in low Earth orbit (which is 100 miles to 1,250 miles from the Earth’s surface), but only things that are at least 10 centimeters are being tracked. This is a problem because in low Earth orbit, objects can move up to 17,000 miles an hour.
During the first Trump administration, a “space situational awareness” program called TraCSS was kicked off to help keep track of objects in orbit and predict where they will be at any given time to minimize the risk of collisions. TraCSS was a worthwhile endeavor, but now there are several private sector companies offering space-tracking services, and some of their capabilities already surpass the federal government’s. Moving forward, we should let the private sector handle this and focus federal resources on continuing innovative space exploration.
National Security
The national security implications of space are taking place in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. Back in 2019 the Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence predicted that “commercial space services would continue to expand; countries – including U.S. adversaries and strategic competitors – would become more reliant on space services for civil and military needs, and China and Russia would field new counterspace weapons intended to target U.S. and allied space capabilities.” Here are other highlights from the 2019 assessment:
Adversary Use of Space
We expect foreign governments will continue efforts to expand their use of space-based reconnaissance, communications, and navigation systems –including by increasing the number of satellites, quality of capabilities, and applications for use. China and Russia are seeking to expand the full spectrum of their space capabilities, as exemplified by China’s launch of its highest-resolution imagery satellite, Gaofen-11, in July 2018.
Space Warfare and Counterspace Weapons
We assess that China and Russia are training and equipping their military space forces and fielding new anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons to hold U.S. and allied space services at risk, even as they push for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space.
Both countries recognize the world’s growing reliance on space and view the capability to attack space services as a part of their broader efforts to deter an adversary from or defeat one in combat.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has an operational ground-based ASAT missile intended to target low-Earth-orbit satellites, and China probably intends to pursue additional ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to geosynchronous Earth orbit.
Russia is developing a similar ground-launched ASAT missile system for targeting low-Earth orbit that is likely to be operational within the next several years. It has fielded a ground-based laser weapon, probably intended to blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors, such as those used for remote sensing.
China’s and Russia’s proposals for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space do not cover multiple issues connected to the ASAT weapons they are developing and deploying, which has allowed them to pursue space warfare capabilities while maintaining the position that space must remain weapons free.
The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, release in March 2025, confirmed China’s advancements: