Space
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National Security
There are a ton of issues to work through as we navigate the final frontier. There are, of course, the national security implications of space that are taking place in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.
Space Force is responsible for everything from our operating missile detection networks to the almost 14,000 active satellites in space to the Geographic Positioning System (GPS) constellation – which helps you send a pin to your friends or find your way to that new restaurant you’ve been wanting to try.
The 2019 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence predicted that “commercial space services would continue to expand; countries – including U.S. adversaries and strategic competitors – would become more reliant on space services for civil and military needs, and China and Russia would field new counterspace weapons intended to target U.S. and allied space capabilities.” Below are other highlights from the 2019 assessment:
Adversary Use of Space
We expect foreign governments will continue efforts to expand their use of space-based reconnaissance, communications, and navigation systems –including by increasing the number of satellites, quality of capabilities, and applications for use. China and Russia are seeking to expand the full spectrum of their space capabilities, as exemplified by China’s launch of its highest-resolution imagery satellite, Gaofen-11, in July 2018.
Space Warfare and Counterspace Weapons
We assess that China and Russia are training and equipping their military space forces and fielding new anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons to hold U.S. and allied space services at risk, even as they push for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space.
Both countries recognize the world’s growing reliance on space and view the capability to attack space services as a part of their broader efforts to deter an adversary from or defeat one in combat.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has an operational ground-based ASAT missile intended to target low-Earth-orbit satellites, and China probably intends to pursue additional ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to geosynchronous Earth orbit.
Russia is developing a similar ground-launched ASAT missile system for targeting low-Earth orbit that is likely to be operational within the next several years. It has fielded a ground-based laser weapon, probably intended to blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors, such as those used for remote sensing.
China’s and Russia’s proposals for international agreements on the non-weaponization of space do not cover multiple issues connected to the ASAT weapons they are developing and deploying, which has allowed them to pursue space warfare capabilities while maintaining the position that space must remain weapons free.
The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment confirmed that “China’s commercial space sector is growing quickly and is on pace to become a major global competitor by 2030. For example, China is developing its own low-earth orbit (LEO) satellite Internet service to compete with Western commercial satellite Internet services.”
Space Junk
The USSF must also keep an eye on unintended threats like “space junk.” Countries around the world have put thousands and thousands of objects into the Earth’s orbit since the Soviet Union put the first satellite in space in 1957 (note: although many countries have put things into space, the United States, Russia and China are collectively responsible for 92 percent of all the space junk). As a result, outdated satellites, random rocket parts, and space debris is literally starting to fall from the sky.
Currently, the USSF monitors about 25,000 bits of debris in low Earth orbit (which is 100 miles to 1,250 miles from the Earth’s surface), but only things that are at least 10 centimeters are being tracked. This is a problem because in low Earth orbit, objects can move up to 17,000 miles an hour – meaning everything less than 10 centimeters is just aimlessly floating around waiting to crash into each another.
The good news is that the USSF has a new initiative called the Space Debris Identification and Tracking program that will attempt to find and map where the smaller debris is located.
Global Rules
Clearly, the world must establish a more modern set of laws to govern space. The current governing law, the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, is far too broad to deal with the challenges we face today – not only things like space junk, but also complicated issues like the commercialization of space, space tourism, vulnerable satellites, increasing traffic, space mining, and liability laws.