NATO'S STRATEGIC VALUE
* The facts below are taken directly from the Atlantic Council's NATO's Value to the United States.
Historically, the United States has expended immense blood and treasure responding to aggression overseas. This was especially true in the conflicts that dominated the twentieth century. Through deterrence, NATO and other U.S. alliances have served important roles in preventing these bloody and resource-draining conflicts from reoccurring. The deterrent value of the alliance has increased in the past few years, in light of Russia’s newly aggressive posture.
One crude measure of the value of effective deterrence might be the number of lives lost in the past two world wars. An estimated 19.7 million people died in World War I, including about 9.7 million military deaths. For World War II, about seventy million died, of which about seventeen million were military. Another crude measure might be the percentage of U.S. GDP spent on major wars during the peak year of each. Those figures are as follows: WWI (14.1 percent), WWII (37.5 percent), Korea (13.2 percent), Vietnam (9.5 percent). Overall, the direct cost to the United States of World War II is estimated at $4.1 trillion (in 2011 dollars). Based on those defense-spending levels in times of past major conflict — given U.S. 2016 GDP at about $18.6 trillion, and using the Korean War as a median figure — one might envision defense spending during a protracted, major conventional war to reach upward of $2.5 trillion annually in a peak year.
NATO has helped advance freedom and democracy in key regions of interest to the United States, thereby also advancing a key U.S. strategic interest: promoting U.S. values among friends, allies, and potential adversaries. NATO nations represent a bastion of freedom that protects and promotes democracy and the rule of law. Given global trends, it is needed as much as ever.
Using the 2018 “Freedom in the World” index, twenty-six of NATO’s twenty-nine members were rated as “free.” In contrast, only 39 percent of the world’s population lives in countries rated as “free.” Russia and China were included in this “not free” category, with ratings of twenty and fourteen, respectively. Therefore, NATO is indeed an alliance of free countries banded together to protect themselves against threats from nations that are “not free.” Trends in global freedom are moving in the wrong direction. Freedom House notes that 2017 marked the twelfth consecutive year of decline in “global freedom.” Institutions like NATO are needed to stem this negative tide.
NATO has also served to attract former adversaries into communities of like-minded democratic nations that are led, or influenced, by the United States. This was an especially important goal in the early years after the Cold War, as the post-communist space was fragile, turbulent, and threatening to generate instability.
After the Cold War ended, seven members of the former Warsaw Pact and the three Baltic States all became NATO members. This constitutes a geo-strategic shift of historic proportions. To put a value on the economic impact of this shift, the annual GDP of the former Warsaw Pact states now in NATO is $1.7 trillion. Removing East Germany from the equation, U.S. exports to these countries grew from $0.9 billion (1989) to $9.4 billion (2016), while imports grew from $1.3 billion (1989) to $21.6 billion (2016).
Europe makes a critical strategic contribution to overall alliance security, by contributing significantly to both nuclear deterrence and defense against nuclear-tipped missiles. This is an increasingly important contribution as Russia pursues its policy of “escalating to de-escalate,” and as Iran continues to develop its ballistic-missile capabilities.
Combined, France and the UK contribute about 30 percent of the total ballistic-missile-submarine (SSBN) deterrent fleet held by NATO members. In addition, France has two squadrons of nuclear-capable aircraft. As strategic arms limitations reduce the number of U.S. warheads, the UK and French deterrent forces — which are not covered by these reductions —become relatively more important. NATO countries also host sites for U.S. B-61 nuclear gravity bombs, and maintain dual-capable aircraft for nuclear delivery, which further enhance deterrence. NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group coordinates allied efforts at nuclear deterrence. NATO has agreed to an alliance ballistic-missile defense (BMD) system for threats emanating from the Middle East, primarily Iran. The first phases of this program are designed to protect Europe. European contributions include hosting elements of the BMD system, investing in NATO’s BMD command-and-control system, and protecting U.S. assets. Turkey hosts radar, Romania hosts Aegis Ashore, Poland hosts Aegis Ashore in 2018, Germany hosts a command-and-control center, Spain hosts four U.S. Aegis ships with BMD capability, the Netherlands and Denmark upgrade frigates with early-warning radar, the UK develops ground-based BMD radar, and many nations provide interceptors assigned to protect U.S. Aegis ships.
The United States relies on timely intelligence collection and accurate analysis to support the full range of national security missions, from counterterrorism to dealing with nuclear-armed adversaries. Many NATO members maintain robust intelligence agencies, which closely cooperate with their U.S. counterparts on a daily basis.
At least three European nations (the UK, France, and Germany) have significant intelligence-gathering capabilities that complement U.S. intelligence efforts. Together, the various intelligence services of these three allied nations employ more than forty thousand personnel.
Evidence:
Hans Binnendijk and Magnus Nordenman. "NATO’s Value to the United States: By the Numbers." Atlantic Council. April 2018